Barring Oil Or Geopolitical Risks, Gulf Banks' Financial Profile Should Stabilize in 2019
- GCC banks' financial profiles should remain stable in 2019, absent any unexpected geopolitical or oil-price shock.
- Bank lending growth should stabilize at around the 5% mark over the next 12 months, as higher oil prices and stronger public investments raise economic growth in the region overall.
- We expect profitability to stabilize--with return on assets at about 1.5%-1.7% and net interest margins at 3% on average in 2018--benefitting from the higher interest rates and significant non-interest-bearing deposits on banks' balance sheets.
- International operations could pose a latent risk for some GCC banks. A few banks with exposure to Turkey will see some impact on their asset quality.
- Three-quarters of the 24 GCC banks we rate carry a stable outlook. Negative outlooks are concentrated in Qatar and on a few banks in other GCC countries due to higher risk in their international operations. The average GCC bank rating is 'BBB+'.
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