Dubai, UAE, July 23, 2018:  In the Gulf Corporation Council (GCC), net income of listed companies in the Islamic (takafuland Islamic cooperative tawuni) insurance sector nearly halved in 2017 to US $375 million, from US $674 million in 2016.The decline in 2017 netincomewasmainlydrivenbyweakerresultsinthe Saudi Arabian insurance sector and follows an increase in earnings by about 151% in 2016, indicating some considerable earnings volatility in the sector.

In ourview, the Islamic insurance sector continues to face secular challenges around relatively  concentrated and undifferentiated business models and high expense ratios that leave them susceptible to adverse event risk related to solvency, governance, and accountancy. That said,we believe that medium-term growth prospects in the sector remain satisfactory given relatively low penetration levels,and we expect Islamic insurance to remain profitable over all in 2018.We also observe strengthening capital levels.

KeyTake aways

• We calculate that net income for the Islamic insurance sector in the GCC dropped by about 44% in 2017,with flat GPW growth and as mall increase in shareholders' equity.
• Overall, net income in 2017 and first-quarter 2018 declined mainly due to materially weaker results in the Saudi Arabian insurance sector.
• We expect the overall Islamic sector in the GCC to remain profitable this year, but pressure on rates as well as lower consumer spending and challenges to collect VAT for policies written in 2017and extending into 2018 could result in a further decline in net earnings this year.
• Credit conditions in the industry may weaken, if slow premium growth persists.

Earnings Volatility Remains A Key Challenge For Islamic Insurers In The Region
The publicly listed Islamic insurers in the GCC generated an estimated net income of US $375 million in 2017,compared with about US $674 million in 2016 and US $269 million in 2015.

The Saudi Arabian market, which contributes about 85% of total GPW,has been the main source Islamic Insurers' Net Income Continues To Fall But The Sector Will Stay Profitable In 2018 of earnings volatility in recent years.While net income in 2016 grew significantly due to rate increases as a result of stricter application of actuarial pricing, 2017 results dropped materially. This was because of additional reserving needs at the largest insurer, and high bad debt provisions at the fourth-largest insurer .First-quarter 2018 also shows a year-on-year drop in net income of 63%, suggesting that this might be another challenging year.

In contrast, the Islamic insurance industry in GCC countries outside Saudi Arabia recorded an increase  in net income by about 832% to US $82 million in 2017 from US $9 million in 2016, and an increase of more than 60% in first-quarter 2018 compared with the same period last year. This improvement was mainly driven by better results in the UAE (the second-largest Islamic insurance market in the GCC contributing about 8% of total GPW),as Salama generated a net profit of US $10 million in 2017 against a net loss of US $48 million in 2016. Year-on-year earnings of  Islamic insurers in other GCC countries remained broadly flat in  2017.

While we expect the Islamic insurance sector in the GCC to remain profitable over all in 2018, there are a number off actors that may affect insurers' profitability in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and therefore the over all results. First, underwriting profits are lower in Saudi Arabia and the UAE because insurers apply no claims and other discounts to motor policies to gain or maintain market share. Second, insurers in Saudi Arabia have been providing additional coverage undermedical policies,which may lead to weaker earnings if this business is not priced adequately. Third, the challenge of collecting value-added tax (VAT) from retail clients for policies written in 2017 and July 18, 2018.        

Medium-Term Growth Prospects Are Satisfactory Despite Flat Premium Growth In Recent Years

In addition to weaker profitability, GPW growth in the Islamic insurance sector has slowed considerably over the past two years.It stood at slightly below US $11 billion in 2017, having remained flat year-on-year. This was despite moderate growth in some markets outside of Saudi Arabia.For example,Islamic insurers in the UAE recorded premium growth of about 15% in 2017 on the back o fhigher motor rates and an expansion of basic medical insurance coverage in Dubai.
Industry-wide, first-quarter 2018 sawan overall decline in GPW by about 3% compared with first quarter 2017, driven by a 3.7% dropin GPW in Saudi Arabia during that period mainly because of pressure on rates as well as slower consumer spending following the introduction of VAT in January 2018. The departure of a large number of expats from Saudi Arabia over the past year has also resulted in lower premium income.We anticipate that the local authorities' efforts to tackle the large number of uninsured drivers,combined with the arrival of women drivers in mid 2018 and higher rates for medical business, following the introduction of additional benefits, will support as lightpick-up in premium growth in Saudi Arabia in theme dium term. However,this maybe off set in the short term by the large number of foreign workers that have already left, or will be leaving in 2018, as Saudization policies are increasingly enforced.

Credit Conditions May Weaken If Slow Premium Growth Persists

Total shareholders' equity in the Islamic insurance sector in the GCC improved by about 3% to US $4.8 billion in 2017,from US $4.6 billion in 2016, as a number of insurers retained parts o ftheir profits orraised additional funds through rights issues.The rate of increase in shareholders' equity exceed spremium growth, which indicates as light improvement in overall capital adequacy, in our view. However, despite this over all improvement in capital adequacy we still believe there are too many insurance companies in the GCC,and that many of these player slack the scale to operate successfully in over crowded and highly competitive markets.

We believe that credit  conditions in the sector may weaken overtime, if total premium growth remains slow and insurers try to capture market share by further lowering their rates. We also believe that the local regulators, particularly in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, will remain committed to maintaining market discipline by introducing more sophisticated risk-based regulations.This may mean that we will see fewer but more profitable insurers in these markets o vertime, particularly if smaller and weaker capitalized insurers are not able to cope with all the additional regulatory demands.